January 11, US stock indexes closed in the green zone, after holding, the first after winning the presidential election, the press conference of Donald Trump. The main growth factor was the spike in oil prices, which put the energy sector’s companies in the lead and allowed the markets to close the day positively. During the press conference, Trump did not provide any details about tax cuts and planned infrastructure costs. These two factors actually stimulated five weeks of stock growth and sales on global bond markets. Many investors expressed disappointment with the results of the press conference, after which a long list of questions remained. Under the blow, were shares of biotech companies, after Trump promised to deal with the pricing of drugs. Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration released weekly inventory data, which showed that last week crude oil inventories rose by 4.097 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 5.023 million barrels, and distillates stocks rose by 8.356 million barrels. Despite a significant increase in crude oil and petroleum products in the United States, crude oil prices jumped to the top, mainly against the backdrop of a falling dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose 98.75 points, or 0.50%, ending the session at 19.954.28. The S & P 500 closed at 6.42 points, or 0.28%, at 2.275.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished trading by adding 11.83 points, or 0.21%, at the level of 5.563.65. On January 12, Asian stock markets traded in different directions, amid jumped oil prices, falling dollar and the unequivocal impression of Asian investors from the press conference of Donald Trump. During the speech, Trump refrained from saying that duties should be changed for Chinese exports, which was a relief for Asian stock markets who were afraid of the start of a global trade war. The reaction of the markets, especially the sharp decline in the value of the US dollar, indicates that investors were left disappointed by the lack of details of the economic policy of the new president, during a press conference. The main blow, from the fall of the dollar, took the Japanese market, as always painfully perceiving the decline of the USD / JPY pair. Nikkei Stock Average fell by -229.97 points, or -1.19%, ending the session at 19.134.70. The S & P / ASX 200 in Australia fell by -4.63 points, or -0.08%, to the level of 5,766.85. The Shanghai Composite fell to -17.46 points in the chord, or -0.56%, to the level of 3.119.29. The Hang Seng index decreases, losing during trading, -90.34 points, or -0.39%.
USD / JPY: The USD / JPY currency pair continued to decline during today’s trading, after investors were disappointed with the results of yesterday’s press conference of newly elected President Donald Trump. Quotes continue to decline, ignoring the high wave reversal candle formed yesterday on the daily chart, while the MACD indicator continues to decline, showing the growing potential of bears. Quotes could fall below MA25 and are close to MA100, which could be the beginning of a trend reversal. Overcoming divergences are not observed. In this situation, the bears can continue the correction down to the level of 114.14 9 (23.6% Fib), the breakdown of which will allow the bears to continue to decline to the level of 111.35 (38.2% Fib). Trading recommendations. In case of breakdown and consolidation below 114.14 (23.6% Fibonacci), sales can be considered, with short stops above the level.
AUD / USD: The AUD / USD quotes continued to move higher, breaking through and consolidating above the level of 0.7468 (50.0% Fib). An additional driver of growth was the disappointing investors at the press conference of the elected US President Donald Trump, which took place yesterday evening. The MACD indicator continues to grow, showing the continuing potential of the bulls, in addition, the quotes of the pair have risen above the MA100, which indicates a possible change in the direction of the trend. At the same time, the Stoch indicator entered the overbought zone and a bearish divergence formed between the quotes and the Stoch readings on the daily chart. In this situation, it is worth considering two scenarios. After the breakdown and consolidation of quotations above the level of 0.7468 (50.0% Fib), the bulls can continue to ascend to the level of 0.7541 (61.8% Fib). At the same time, the probability of working out divergence is quite high, so in case of resumption of decline and return of quotes, below the level of 0.7468 (50.0% Fib), we can expect the resumption of decline, for the level of 0.7395 (38.2% by Fib).
NZD / USD: Today, the quotes of the NZD / USD currency pair continued to move northward, after yesterday’s return above the level of 0.7007, as traders did not receive the expected answers during the press conference of the elected US President Donald Trump, yesterday in the evening. The MACD indicator continues to grow after crossing the zero line, showing the growing potential of bulls. Quotes rose above MA25 and are close to MA100, which indicates the probability of a trend change. There is no maturing divergence, not a single indicator. After the breakdown of the level of 0.7098 (38.2 in fibonacci), the bulls were able to continue their way northward to the level of 0.7172 (50.0% in Fib).
XAUUSD: Today, gold prices continued to rise, ignoring the high wave of the reversal candle formed yesterday on the daily chart, amid increased demand for asylum assets, after yesterday’s Donald Trump press conference, during which investors did not hear confirmation of plans to stimulate the economy . The MACD indicator continues to grow after crossing the zero line, showing the growing potential of bulls. At the same time, the Stoch indicator is in the overbought zone. Gold quotes are above MA50 and below MA100, which indicates a possible change in the trend direction. Overcoming divergences are not observed. In this situation, we can expect a continuation of the upward movement to the level of 1218.88 (38.2% Fib), the breakdown of which will allow the bulls to continue climbing to the level of 1248.66 (50.0% Fib).
Review prepared by the analytical department https://www.fortfs.com/en/analytics/review