January 12, US stock indexes bounced off the session lows, but still closed lower, investors were taking profits, before the start of the corporate earnings report season. In addition, pressure on the market, had a negative assessment of investors, the first official press conference of President-elect Donald Trump. Investors, more and more, are beginning to question the validity of the growth of markets, after trump’s victory in the presidential election. Rising oil prices, caused by reports from Saudi Arabia, about reducing production to 10 million barrels per day, were able to keep the market from a further fall. The market’s response to data on weekly jobless claims and the level of import prices was positive, as the data indicate a further increase in the labor market and a surge in inflation, due to high oil prices. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, speaking in Malvern, Pa., Said that the US economy shows good growth and three interest rate increases in 2017 are quite likely if the economy maintains growth rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by -63.28 points, or -0.32%, at 19.891.00. The S & P 500 fell by -4.88 points, or -0.21%, ending trading at 2,270.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped down to -16.16 points, or -0.29%, to the level of 5,547.49.
January 13, Asian stock markets traded in different directions, amid high oil prices and investor disappointment that President-elect Donald Trump was unable to announce plans to stimulate the economy at a press conference two days ago. Investors, mostly ignored, mixed data on trading volumes from China. The data showed that in December, exports fell more than expected, by -6.1% compared with a year earlier, while imports rose more than expected, by 3.1% compared with a year earlier. As the largest country in the world in terms of trade, China may be under pressure from protectionist measures this year if Trump, after accusing China of currency manipulations, decides to raise tariffs on imports from China. Nikkei Stock Average rose 152.58 points, or 0.80%, ending the session at 19.287.28. The S & P / ASX 200 in Australia fell by -45.74 points, or -0.79%, to the level of 5.721.12. The Shanghai Composite fell to -6.52 points in the chord, or -0.21%, to the level of 3.112.76. The Hang Seng index grows during the auction by 105.95 points, or 0.46%.
USD / JPY: Today, after a rebound from the level of 114.14, the USD / JPY currency pair quotes almost did not change, in anticipation of new incentives after a decline caused by the disappointment of investors at the Trump press conference. The MACD indicator continues to decline, showing the growing potential of bears. Moving averages, are at a crossroads, after quotes could fall below MA25, which could be the beginning of a trend reversal. Overcoming divergences are not observed. On the H4 chart, the MACD indicator is rising rising to the zero line, the intersection of which will give a bullish signal, at the same time, moving averages indicate a continuation of a bearish trend. In addition, a reversal candle, a high wave, was formed on the chart, which may indicate the completion of the correction. In case of resumption of decline and breakdown of the level of 114.91 (23.6% Fib), the bears can continue to move south to work out a local minimum of 113.75.
AUD / USD: The AUD / USD quotes continued to move higher, after yesterday’s breakdown and consolidation above 0.7468, against the background of the negativity remaining on the market, after investors’ disappointments at a press conference of US President-elect Donald Trump, Wednesday The MACD indicator continues to grow, showing the continuing potential of the bulls. Moving averages unfold after quotes have risen above the MA100, indicating a possible change in the trend direction. At the same time, the Stoch indicator is in the overbought zone, and a bearish divergence has formed on the daily chart, between quotes and Stoch readings. In this situation, it is worth considering two scenarios. So, in the case of continued growth, breakdown and consolidation of quotations above the level of 0.7541 (61.8% Fib), bulls can continue the upward movement to test the level of 0.7645 (78.6% Fib). There is also a high probability that the beginning of the development of divergence, as in the case of a resumption of decline and breakdown of 0.7468 (50.0% Fib), the bears can start moving south to the level of 0.7395 (38.2% Fib ).
NZD / USD: Today, quotes of the NZD / USD currency pair continued their upward movement, breaking through and consolidating above the level of 0.7098, amid the general weakening of the dollar, after a press conference of the elected US President Donald Trump, on Wednesday. The MACD indicator continues to grow after crossing the zero line, showing the growing potential of bulls. Quotes rose above MA100, which indicates the probability of a trend change. There is no maturing divergence, not a single indicator. In this situation, we can expect continued growth of quotations for testing the level of 0.7172 (50.0% in fibonacci), the breakdown of which will enable the bulls to continue their way northward to the level of 0.7246 (61.8% in Fibo).
XAUUSD: During today’s trading, the quotes of gold remained almost unchanged, after the shooting star formed yesterday on the daily chart of the reversal candle. The market stopped waiting for new signals, after a portion of the negative news from the Donald Trump press conference, during which investors did not hear confirmation of plans to stimulate the economy. The MACD indicator is above the zero line, showing the continuing potential of the bulls. At the same time, the Stoch indicator is in the overbought zone. Gold quotes are above MA50 and below MA100, which indicates a possible change in the trend direction. Overcoming divergences are not observed. Judging by the candles, now there is a possibility of a downward correction to the level of 1182.02 (23.6% Fib), the breakdown of which will allow the bears to resume the decline towards the local minimum of 1122.44.
Review prepared by the analytical department https://www.fortfs.com/en/analytics/review