January 9 in Japan celebrate the day of majority. On Friday, US stock indices closed with growth, after the publication of data from the labor market, which investors found generally positive. The Nasdaq Composite index jumped to record levels, and the Dow index closed very close to 20,000. The US economy created 156,000 jobs last month, a figure lower than analysts’ forecast of 180,000. However, the upward revision of the number of jobs for November and a slight difference compared with October data show that the latest data was generally positive. According to analysts, the report on jobs was solid and indicated continued growth in the economy. More importantly, wage growth, which is often seen as the forerunner of inflation, was 0.4%, with a forecast of 0.3%. Comments, which were given by representatives of the Fed, showed the prevailing sentiment, to the side of the rate increase. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she would like to see more than three rate hikes, a quarter percentage point, this year. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that interest rates may have to be raised more often than expected, as unemployment remains at previous levels, and inflation is very close to the 2% goal. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that economic conditions are likely to allow us to vote twice for higher interest rates in 2017, but the forecast for the three increases is not implausible. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index rose by 64.51 points or 0.32%, ending the week at 19.963.80. The S & P 500 closed up 7.98 points, or 0.35%, at 2,276.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended the session by adding 33.12 points, or 0.60%, to the level of 5.521.06. January 9, most Asian stock markets are trading higher, amid positive sentiment about the growth of the US economy, which may lead to an increase in demand for goods from Asia. The growth of the US dollar against Asian currencies was not perceived by analysts unequivocally. So, on the one hand, this increases the competitiveness of Asian goods, on the other, it can cause a negative reaction from the newly elected US President, Donald Trump, who promised to protect the American market. Analysts expect Donald Trump’s press conference on Wednesday, where he is expected to explain his views on world trade and China. All his words will be carefully studied in order to understand the future political consequences of his policies. S & P / ASX 200 in Australia rose by 51.86 points, or 0.90%, to close at 5.807.44. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.92 points, or 0.54%, to close at 3,171.24. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is growing at 64.84 points, or 0.29%.
USD / JPY: During the Asian session, the USD / JPY currency pair quotes continued their upward movement, after a reversal on Friday. Indicators attached to the chart provide mixed signals. On the D1 chart, the MACD indicator continues to decline, showing the increasing potential of bears. At the same time, moving averages point to the persistence of a bullish trend.
On the H4 chart, the MACD indicator crossed the zero line and continues to grow, giving a bullish signal, while the Stoch indicator shows that the pair is overbought.
On the H4 chart, USD / JPY crossed the level of 117.34 or 23.6 Fibonacci, after which the bulls can continue to move in the direction of the key resistance level of 118.65. At the same time, the return of quotes below the level may be the beginning of a prolonged downward correction.
AUD / USD: During the Asian session, the quotes of the AUD / USD currency pair strengthened a little, after the publication, about a 7% increase in construction permits in Australia, with a 4.6% growth forecast. On chart D, the MACD indicator continues to grow, after crossing the zero line, showing the growing potential of bulls. At the same time, moving averages point to a continuation of the bearish trend.
On the H4 chart, as a result of a correction to the top, a bullish absorption pattern has formed. The MACD indicator goes down after crossing the zero line, giving a bearish signal to bears, at the same time MA25, crossed MA100, from bottom to top, giving a bullish signal.
As we can see, the indicators give different signals. But the bulls will still be able to break through, the level of 0.7305 or 23.6% in Fibonacci, after which we can expect continued growth to the level of 0.7375 or 38.2% in Fibonachi. While returning below 0.7305, the bulls will show weakness and allow the bears to resume their decline to the local minimum of 0.7159.
NZD / USD: On Friday, on the daily chart of the NZD / USD currency pair, a candlestick pattern was formed, a bearish takeover. In today’s trading, the market tried to determine the direction and quotes of the currency pair NZD / USD, almost did not change. In chart D, the MACD indicator grows after crossing the zero line, giving a bullish signal. At the same time, moving averages prefer bears.
On the H4 chart, the MACD indicator goes down after crossing the zero line, giving a bearish signal, while the Stoch indicator shows that the pair is oversold.
Quotes of the NZD / USD currency pair have been trying to break through the level of 0.6949 or 23.6 Fibonacci for several days. Breakdown of this level will allow the bears to continue to decline to the local minimum level of 0.6860. At that time, as a rebound from the level of 0.6949, may be the beginning of a long correction, the first goal of which will be the level of 0.7004 or 38.2 Fibonacci.
XAUUSD: Gold prices sank a little late last week, rebounding from the level of 1182.02. During today’s trading, quotes have not changed much, as traders are trying to determine the situation on the market. On chart D, the MACD indicator continues to grow after crossing the zero line, showing the increasing potential of bulls. At the same time, moving averages still show a persisting bearish trend.
On the H4 chart, the MACD indicator began to decline, after crossing the zero line, giving a bearish signal. At the same time, moving averages remain on the side of bulls.
Indicators give mixed signals, indicating the ambiguity of the market situation. A rebound from the level of 1182.02, before the arrival of other signals, will allow the bears to expect a downward correction to the local minimum level of 1122.44. At the same time, the bulls after an unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1182, 02, can try again and in the case of a breakdown continue the correction to the top, to the level of 1218.88.
Overview prepared by Fort Financial Services Analytics