Almost exactly a year ago, we introduced you to the “shocking predictions” -2018 from Saxo Bank analysts. Their peculiarity is that they seem so fantastic that sometimes they really come true. Paradox? If markets were predictable, everyone would have become millionaires. But no, it is unpredictability that makes its unique flavor to investing. This means that seemingly fantastic events may well occur. Let the predictions should not be taken seriously, it is worth getting to know them. And at the same time, and find out what predictions came true this year.
Shocking Future Predictions
First, let us recall what the analysts of Saxo Bank predicted for this year:
- The Fed will lose independence, national debt will become critical. It did not come true. The role of the Fed has remained the same and all the same investors are watching the growth of the discount rate. Public debt is growing, but its ratio to GDP is still far from critical. That is, everything goes as it did in 2017.
- China will switch to Nefteyuani. Almost did not come true. The problem of relations between China and the United States did take place this year, but at the G20 summit this issue was partially resolved. And even the mutual introduction of duties did not lead to any cardinal consequences. But China is the first to take a step towards the organization of a controlled cryptocurrency payment system.
- US stock market drawdown of 25% or more. Partially come true. Stock market volatility was indeed strong, but such a serious collapse did not occur. The market was affected by the trade war with China, relatively weak financial reporting, but at the same time there were periods and growths. The stock market has not yet blown away, but still ahead.
- Europe is facing geopolitical conflicts, the euro will become cheaper. Come true. The loss of the euro against the dollar amounted to more than 10%, the DAX index showed a loss of about 11% since the beginning of the year. For the problems of Catalonia, problems began with the Italian financial system, instability in France and the potential disruption of Brexit. Regarding the UK exit from the EU, “shocking predictions” predicted cancellation and here partly the forecast coincided: on December 11, the British Parliament may reject the agreement agreed with the EU, putting the procedure itself in jeopardy.
- Military-technical cooperation will rise to 60 thousand dollars. US capitalization will go 1 trillion, after which the PTS will fall to the base cost of $ 1,000. USA. It did not come true. The problem of scaling has led to the fact that more complex ASIC systems (circuits) have become required to perform calculations. The cost of Mining production has grown on average to 6 thousand dollars. USA. Capitalization was not able to cross the forecast bar – the cryptocurrency bubble, which was practically not supported by the states, decreased several times, but was not as critical as it was said in the “shocking predictions”. Some investors believe that after the resistance level reached recently of $ 120 billion. The US cryptocurrency will turn back into growth.
- Rand will rise against the dollar by 30%. It did not come true. Yes, and the prerequisites for this was not.
- Tencent will pass Apple through capitalization and become the first company in the world. It did not come true. The Chinese stock market fell after the US stock market. And although in the summer there was a moment when Tencent capitalized bypassed even Facebook, it did not become the largest.
What to expect in 2019:
- Apple will buy Tesla. The technology giant, whose shares have fallen in price after the recent publication of reporting by 16%, is in a difficult position. Ilon Musk may well sell his company, focusing on space technology.
- Europe is facing a debt crisis. Italy’s problems will be shifted to France, then to other countries. The EU is already in distress, which could be even greater.
- Germany is facing a recession. However, as suggested above, the whole of Europe will be waiting for a recession.
- Trump will replace the head of the Fed. After raising the discount rate, economic growth will slow down, and by the middle of summer the stock market will completely fall into a deep hole, which will be the reason for the change of Jerome Powell. Something like this was already supposed a year ago.
- Netflix will be the catalyst that brings down the US stock market. Survival with borrowed funds and the launch of Disney’s video streaming technology will lead to the bankruptcy of a corporation that will trigger a chain reaction.
- The GDP indicator will be canceled as such, as it does not reflect the real state of the economy.
- A world transport tax will be introduced, which will be a global step to combat the effects of various substances released into the atmosphere. The load will fall on the transport companies, which will suffer tourism.
- Australia will fall into recession for the first time in 27 years.
The problems of Europe in the “shocking predictions” look the most real. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves – the future will put everything in its place!