EUR / USD (4-hour chart)
The pressure on the European currency is increasing every day. The only thing that is now holding back the EUR / USD pair from a strong fall is the absence of important news on the market and a fairly strong growth in the commodity market, which puts pressure on the dollar. However, in the current situation it is difficult to expect a reversal of the EUR / USD pair. In the absence of important macroeconomic data, investors will be guided by data that was published last week, and they are not so obvious, but still support the dollar. Changes in the balance of power in the market today can only be influenced by the speeches of the heads of regulators of the largest economies in the world. At 12:00 Moscow time, M. Draghi will make a speech. Can he now surprise the market with something? Hardly, therefore, we do not expect a strong influence of his speech on the market. D. Yellen, too, is probably not able to surprise the markets now, most likely, her speech will consist of phrases long known to market participants about stable growth of the US economy and relatively weak inflation which is still below the target market of 2% and can remain below this figure for quite a long time. But, of course, one hundred percent can not exclude possible surprises in the speeches of Draghi and Yellen, so you should not completely ignore these events and take them into account when making trading decisions. The technical picture is quite predictable. After the price all past week unsuccessfully trying to break through resistance to 1.1660, and at the end of the week, the single-digit priority bounced down strongly enough in favor of the scenario with a decrease in price. Breakdown of support at 1.1572 was only a matter of time. Now we are just seeing how the price is trying to push this level. Fixing under it will open the way to the next support level at 1.1440. But the false break will be able to slightly change the balance of power. We are waiting for test results
Recommendations: priority remains in favor of sales, but it was necessary to sell higher. Those who did not have time to enter the market now have no choice but to simply watch the movement down. Those who are in the market can continue to hold their short positions.
GBP / USD (4 hour chart)
In our previous review, we noted that the pound sterling, unlike the European currency, has a much better chance of recovery, and yesterday the bulls showed it to us. There were no serious fundamental factors yesterday. Is it possible to distinguish a strong growth of “black gold”, and the pound, as you know, correlates very well with the Brent brand. The fundamentals of yesterday’s growth in the British currency were laid last week, when the British regulator raised the interest rate for the first time in ten years and subsequently released an unexpectedly good PMI index of the service sector in that country. Strengthening the pound on Friday, only moderately positive statistics from the United States prevented. Yesterday, as in the following this week, important news is not expected that, as the practice of recent weeks shows, is positive for the pound sterling. On the four-hour chart, it is impossible to distinguish any fundamental changes. The price continues to trade in the range of 1.3025-1.3285. Now we see a rebound from the lower limit of the range and in the current situation it is logical to expect growth to the upper limit of the range. Although in the current situation, when the price is confidently keeping below the 200 day SMA line and the AO indicator is not yet able to go into the positive zone, the price may well roll back down again. Trading in the range is different in that it is easiest to predict the price behavior from the boundaries of this range, and in its center the probability of choosing a further direction of price movement is 50/50.
Recommendations: consider long positions, but only with a significant price rollback down, at least in the area of 1.3100.