As stated earlier, this week is full of news and statistics from Asia, Europe and the United States. The news is important and will determine the movement of the market in the coming weeks, if not for the whole month. And so, what this week’s economic calendar is preparing for us:
At 15:00 GMT the level of consumer confidence in the United States. The last value for December showed 113.7, the month before the index came out at 109.4. According to analysts, this month the index will be released at the level of 112.9. The decline is expected, as America is now experiencing a period of uncertainty due to the first bills of President Donald Trump. The output of the results better than the forecast will signal a rise in the US dollar.
At 13:15 GMT, the ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector for January is published. The report of the ADP research institute on employment change is considered a preliminary report before the publication of the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector on Friday. In December, the private sector added 153,000 jobs, while analysts are waiting for 165,000 new jobs in January. Again, the increase in the number of people employed will be a bullish signal for the US dollar. At 15:00 GMT the PMI index in the manufacturing sector from Markit is published. According to the latest ISM report, the manufacturing sector in the country grew stronger in December. The index showed 54.7% compared with the previous value of 53.2, i.e. 1.5% growth was recorded. The index grew 4 months in a row and reached its highest level in a year. Data greater than 50% will confirm further expansion and growth, while the output of figures below 50% will indicate a slowdown or even a reduction. The forecast for January is 55.0%. The main event on Wednesday, and the whole week will occur at 19:00 GMT, when the Fed announces its interest rate decision: the US Central Bank will hold its first meeting in the new year. No one expects surprises from the Central Bank, as they believe in the market rates will remain unchanged at the level of 0.50 – 0.75%. A more valuable informational event will be the press conference of the regulator after the meeting, where traders will hear D. Yellen’s comments and learn about the next steps of the Central Bank.
Nonfarma or a report on the number of new jobs created outside of agriculture is considered to be the second significant event of the week. Labor market data is one of the most important reports of the Fed, especially when it comes to interest rates and their changes. These numbers can determine the future of economic policy for the very near future. Economists predict a positive report for January, expecting a growth of 171K, the unemployment rate, in their opinion, will not change and will remain at 4.7%. The report is released at 13:00 GMT. The business week is completed by the ISM business activity index in the services sector, which will be released at 15:00 GMT. Past data showed 57.2%, unchanged from November. According to the latest data in December, twelve non-production sectors have grown.
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